Petrol vs Diesel – FRANCE – C-Segment – January 2018
C-Segment volumes peaked in 2016 at 277,000 units, falling back in 2017 to around 260,000 registered vehicles (levels similar to 2015 volumes).
Diesel volumes have reduced by over 15% (26,000 units) in the last two years, from just over 169,000 units in 2015 to less than 144,000 in 2017. In the same period, Petrol registrations have increased by almost 31% (24,000 units) from 77,600 to over 101,000 vehicles registered.
Hybrid volumes have remained relatively static over this period at around 15,000 per annum. Other alternative fuels equate to less than 1,000 registrations per annum.
The clear indication is that Diesel owners are starting to switch to Petrol. Uptake on hybrid vehicles remains at a consistent 5,5%.
Leasing company Residual values have seen a steady increase since the financial crisis of 2009, with average annual improvements of an average 0.8% per annum (from 34.2% in 2010 to 39.7% in 2017).
Diesel RVs have shown a small reduction over the last three years, following 6 years of steady growth between the lows of 2010 (post financial crisis) to a high in 2016.
Diesel RV’s have shown a gradual reduction since 2016 (down approximately 0.6ppt between 2016 and Jan 2018). Petrol RVs have increased significantly in this period (up almost 7.5ppt between 2015 and January 2018). This has seen the gap between Diesel and Petrol diminish to just over 0.6ppt in 2018 (from a range of over 8.7% in 2005 and over 6% in 2013).
Used Vehicle prices
Aggregated Used vehicle asking prices show a clear downward trend in Diesel valuations (by an average 2ppts over the last 12 months). Petrol used prices have been rather unstable in this period but trending upwards (by an average 0.5ppts in 2017).
However, petrol used asking prices in the last two months have seen a significant rise of an average 1.75ppt per month, and current Petrol used values are now equivalent to Diesel (when expressed as a percentage of the original list price).
When compared to forecast % RVs from 3 years ago, Petrol used asking prices are showing a widening margin from original market forecasts (from 9ppts in January 2017 to over 14.5ppts in January 2018). Meanwhile, diesel margins are being squeezed (from around 5ppts at the start of 2017 down to around 3ppts in January 2018).
The implications are that, as Diesel loses traction in the used car market, margins from business transacted between 2015 and 2017 will become even more squeezed. It is therefore imperative that the market offers a positive impression of Diesel now to mitigate potentially significant losses in the coming years.
Furthermore, a realigning of Diesel RV’s downwards for new business seems to be an inevitable result in the market; and encouraging more customers into alternative technologies now seems more important than ever, since there is likely to be further legislative pressure not only on Diesel, but indeed on all internal combustion powered vehicles.
For further information please contact:
Dan Fortnam, Business Development & Financial Operations Director
Experteye, The Granary, 2 Manor Courtyard, Aston Sandford, HP17 8JB, UK
T: +44 (0)1844 296500 M: +44 (0)7776 022819 e: firstname.lastname@example.org
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